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Frailty / Aging Projections in Italy - Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a "geriatric -HIV" modelling study
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from Jules: Research in HIV on Life Expectancy Has Excluded Patients & EStimates of Multicomorbidity, Projections for disability & multi-morbidities should be included in life expectancy studies
In this study in graphs below first they review the current characteristics of their patients - age, lipodystrphy [75%], prevalence of various comorbidities in Italy & in the ATHENA Cohort. Then they project into the future what will happen - prevalence of frailty, falls, and percent predicts 34% will be disabled in 15 years.
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"In 15 years time the HIV geriatric population [65-67 yo] will increase from 4% to 37%"
"In 15 years time the most frail HIV population will increase from 24% [now, 2016] to 48%"
"In 15 years time 34% of PLWH will be disabled" [burden of IADLs - independent activities of daily living]
see graph below - appears to predict 30% will experience a fall in 15 years, up from 20% now
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Reported by Jules Levin
18th International Workshop on Co-morbidities and Adverse Drug Reactions in HIV, Sept 12-13, 2016, New York, NY
Guaraldi G1, De Francesco D2, Malagoli A1, Theou O3, Zona S1, Carli F1, Dolci G1, Mussini C1, Kirkland S4, Mussi C5, Cesari M6, Rockwood K7
1 Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences for Adults and Children, Clinic of Infectious Diseases, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia;
2 HIV Epidemiology and Biostatistics Group (HEBG) at UCL - London;
3 Geriatric Medicine Research, Dalhousie University;
4 Department of Community Health & Epidemiology, Dalhousie University;
5 Geriatrics Division, Uni- versity of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy;
6 Gerontopole, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Toulouse, Toulou- se, France;
7 (1) Geriatric Medicine Research, Dalhousie University; (2) Geriatric Medicine, Institute of Brain & Behavioural Sciences, University of Manchester
Reported by Jules Levin
18th International Workshop on Co-morbidities and Adverse Drug Reactions in HIV, Sept 12-13, 2016, New York, NY
Guaraldi G1, De Francesco D2, Malagoli A1, Theou O3, Zona S1, Carli F1, Dolci G1, Mussini C1, Kirkland S4, Mussi C5, Cesari M6, Rockwood K7
1 Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences for Adults and Children, Clinic of Infectious Diseases, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia;
2 HIV Epidemiology and Biostatistics Group (HEBG) at UCL - London;
3 Geriatric Medicine Research, Dalhousie University;
4 Department of Community Health & Epidemiology, Dalhousie University;
5 Geriatrics Division, Uni- versity of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy;
6 Gerontopole, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Toulouse, Toulou- se, France;
7 (1) Geriatric Medicine Research, Dalhousie University; (2) Geriatric Medicine, Institute of Brain & Behavioural Sciences, University of Manchester
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(15)00056-0/fulltext
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