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Utility of chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk prediction scores and the changing - prevalence of CKD has doubled from '09 to '15; risk scores are predictive
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Reported by Jules Levin
19th International Workshop on Co-morbidities and Adverse Drug Reactions in HIV
October 24, 2017
"5-year risk of developing CKD: 0.19%, 1.62%, 15.33% for low, moderate, and high risk, respecively2.
Prevalence of CKD (eGFR<60) was more than two-times higher in 2015 compared to 2009 (9.3% vs 4.2%, p<0.001)........ In the longitudinal analysis 37 (5.0%) developed CKD at a median of 4.7 years (IQR 2.2, 6.2).....Longer HIV duration and lower CD4 nadir predictive of development of CKD in univariate analysis.....ARV exposure did not predict development of CKD.....Overall median decline in eGFR of -0.53 ml/min/year, A faster rate of eGFR decline was predicted by the presence of:
• Diabetes OR 2.45 (95%CI 1.05-5.72) p= 0.037
• Proteinuria OR 1.93 (95%CI 0.98-3.79) p=0.056
Both the D:A:D and the Scherzer score predicted development of CKD....The Short D:A:D score demonstrated slightly higher calibration for CKD....By 2015 higher CKD risk scores and greater proportion in high risk category"
JM Trevillyan, MA Moso, E Woolnough, F Langham, AC Cheng, RG Walker, A Chrystostomou, I Woolley, A Weeraratne, JF Hoy.
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