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Estimating HIV incidence and the undiagnosed HIV population in the European Union/European Economic Area - Estimated 120,000 People With Undiagnosed HIV Across Europe in 2015
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Estimated 120,000 People With Undiagnosed HIV Across Europe in 2015
9th IAS Conference on HIV Science (IAS 2017), July 23-26, 2017, Paris
Mark Mascolini
A 53-country analysis estimated that 120,000 Europeans had undiagnosed HIV infection in 2015, with the highest numbers in Western and Southern Europe [1]. Estimated HIV incidence (the new-diagnosis rate) stood at 5.3 per 100,000 people.
Researchers from Stichting HIV Monitoring in Amsterdam and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) aimed to estimate the number of undiagnosed HIV infections and HIV incidence by European region: Northern (UK, Ireland, Iceland, Scandinavian countries, Baltic countries), Western (France, Germany, Austria, Low Countries), Southern (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Greece, Cyprus), and Eastern (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria).
The research team used the joint database for reporting HIV within the European Surveillance System (TESSy). They reviewed annual data on HIV diagnoses in 2003-2015 stratified by (1) presence of a concurrent AIDS diagnosis (within 3 months), and (2) CD4 count category at diagnosis in people without concurrent AIDS. The analyses adjusted for reporting delay and underreporting.
The investigators counted 404,402 HIV diagnoses from 2003 through 2015, 30% in Northern Europe, 36% in Western Europe, 28% in Southern Europe, and 7% in Eastern Europe. They estimated an overall HIV incidence of 5.3 per 100,000 people. That rate was highest in Northern Europe (8.3 per 100,000), followed by Western Europe (6.1 per 100,000), Eastern Europe (3.1 per 100,000), and Southern Europe (2.7 per 100,000).
The researchers estimated that 120,000 Europeans had undiagnosed HIV infection in 2015, including an estimated 26,000 in Northern Europe, 38,000 in Western Europe, 37,000 in Southern Europe, and 12,000 in Eastern Europe. In undiagnosed individuals, estimated time to diagnosis stood at a median of 2.9 years (interquartile range 1.4 to 5.4). An estimated 47% of undiagnosed people had a CD4 count at or above 500, while an estimated 31% had a CD4 count below 350.
Reference
1. van Sighem A, Pharris A, Quinten C, et al. Estimating HIV incidence and the undiagnosed HIV population in the European Union/European economic area. 9th IAS Conference on HIV Science (IAS 2017), July 23-26, 2017, Paris. Abstract TUAC0305.
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