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Blacks/African Americans are 5 Times More Likely to Develop COVID-19, COPD/heart disease>65 also associated: Spatial Modeling of New York City ZIP Code-level Testing Results
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May 19, 2020.
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.20101691v1
Abstract
Introduction. The population and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 infections are poorly understood, but there is increasing evidence that in addition to individual clinical factors, demographic, socioeconomic and racial characteristics play an important role. Methods. We analyzed positive COVID-19 testing results counts within New York City ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA) with Bayesian hierarchical Poisson spatial models using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Results. Spatial clustering accounted for approximately 32% of the variation in the data, with hot spots in all five boroughs. Spatial risk did not correspond precisely to population-based rates of positive tests. The strongest univariate association with positive testing rates was the proportion of residents in a ZIP Code Tabulation Area with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). For every one unit increase in a scaled standardized measure of COPD in a community, there was an approximate 8-fold increase in the risk of a positive COVID-19 test in a ZCTA (Incidence Density Ratio = 8.2, 95% Credible Interval 3.7, 18.3). The next strongest association was with the proportion of Black and African American residents, for which there was a nearly five-fold increase in the risk of a positive COVID-19 test. (IDR = 4.8, 95% Cr I 2.4, 9.7). Increases in the proportion of residents older than 65, housing density and the proportion of residents with heart disease were each associated with an approximate doubling of risk. In a multivariable model including estimates for age, COPD, heart disease, housing density and Black/African American race, the only variables that remained associated with positive COVID-19 testing with a probability greater than chance were the proportion of Black/African American residents and proportion of older persons. Conclusions. The population and spatial patterns of COVID-19 infections differ by race, age, physical environment and health status. Areas with large proportions of Black/African American residents are at markedly higher risk that is not fully explained by characteristics of the environment and pre-existing conditions in the population.
Funding Statement
Department of Surgery. New York University School of Medicine
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