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Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040
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Dec 1 2022
The global burden of liver cancer is substantial. According to 2020 estimates, liver cancer is the sixth most commonly diagnosed cancer and the third most common cause of cancer death.[1]
Liver cancer also ranks as the second most common cause of premature death from cancer.[2]
Incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer have dropped in some Eastern Asian countries including Japan, China, and the Republic of Korea, but rates have increased in many previously low-incidence countries across the world, such as the US, Australia, and several European countries.[3]
Although HBV and HCV infections constitute the most important exogenous risk factors for primary liver cancer, excessive alcohol consumption and the related conditions of metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, obesity, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease have also become prominent causes of primary liver cancer.[4],[5]
The number of new cases of liver cancer is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with 1.4 million new diagnoses forecast for 2040 (Fig. 3). An estimated 1.3 million deaths are predicted to occur in 2040, an increase of 56.4%.
Highlights
•905,700 people were diagnosed with and 830,200 people died from liver cancer globally in 2020.
•Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries.
•The number of new cases and deaths from liver cancer could rise by >55% by 2040.
Background & Aims
The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040.
Methods
We extracted data on primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040.
Results
In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with, and 830,200 people died from, liver cancer globally. Global ASRs for liver cancer were 9.5 and 8.7 for new cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 people and were highest in Eastern Asia (17.8 new cases, 16.1 deaths), Northern Africa (15.2 new cases, 14.5 deaths), and South-Eastern Asia (13.7 new cases, 13.2 deaths). Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females in all world regions (male:female ASR ratio ranged between 1.2–3.6). The number of new cases of liver cancer per year is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. A predicted 1.3 million people could die from liver cancer in 2040 (56.4% more than in 2020).
Conclusions
Liver cancer is a major cause of death in many countries, and the number of people diagnosed with liver cancer is predicted to rise. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable liver cancer should be prioritised.
Lay summary
The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries worldwide. We predict the number of cases and deaths will rise over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Primary liver cancer due to some causes is preventable if control efforts are prioritised and the predicted rise in cases may increase the need for resources to manage care of patients with liver cancer.
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